From b93f1e984811944fd5ccfd1d9aa37bba5fc10000 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Brandon Thomas <echelon@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 2 Oct 2026 07:43:35 -0400
Subject: [PATCH] ROADMAP: parity estimate by feature count and by effort;
 xtask parity prints weighted completion
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- `cargo xtask parity` adds a weighted-completion line (✅ 1, 🟡 ½, out of scope left out) per
  tier to the generated summary: 65.7% of 500 in-scope rows (P0 98.5%, P1 79.9%, P2 11.7%).
- ROADMAP: remaining work by package in agent-hours (≈ 295–540; ≈ 75–130 h wall clock with
  4–6 agents), effort-weighted completion ≈ 20–30% for full parity, milestone statuses
  refreshed, Totals replaced.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---
 ROADMAP.md          | 81 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++----------
 docs/parity.md      |  2 ++
 xtask/src/parity.rs | 30 +++++++++++++++++
 3 files changed, 95 insertions(+), 18 deletions(-)

diff --git a/ROADMAP.md b/ROADMAP.md
index 91d7f54df..ef6b0e2c1 100644
--- a/ROADMAP.md
+++ b/ROADMAP.md
@@ -8,30 +8,74 @@ projects (DrawCraft reached its first four milestones in ≈ 4½ h) and are revi
 
 | # | Milestone | Scope (summary) | Estimate (h) | Status |
 |---|---|---|---|---|
-| M0 | Skeleton + visual shell | workspace, xtask CI + layering, geom/color/raster, develop model, pipeline v0, catalog v0, engine commands, Lightroom-look UI (grid, loupe, filmstrip, Edit panel), control channel, MCP, web build | 3–5 | 🚧 (UI, pipeline, engine, control channel ✅; MCP/CLI, web 🚧) |
-| M1 | Library core | import (JPEG/PNG/TIFF/WebP), EXIF/XMP, persistent catalog (op log + snapshots), albums, ratings/flags/labels, filter/search/sort, thumbnail cache, 100k-photo grid | 6–10 | 🚧 (import, codecs, EXIF/XMP, albums, search ✅; persistence 🚧) |
-| M2 | Pipeline v1 (quality) | WB temp/tint, profiles, local tone mapping (highlights/shadows), curves, HSL, point colour, colour grading, texture/clarity/dehaze, vignette, grain, B&W, auto tone/WB, histogram, before/after | 10–15 | ⬜ |
+| M0 | Skeleton + visual shell | workspace, xtask CI + layering, geom/color/raster, develop model, pipeline v0, catalog v0, engine commands, Lightroom-look UI (grid, loupe, filmstrip, Edit panel), control channel, MCP, web build | 3–5 | ✅ |
+| M1 | Library core | import (JPEG/PNG/TIFF/WebP), EXIF/XMP, persistent catalog (op log + snapshots), albums, ratings/flags/labels, filter/search/sort, thumbnail cache, 100k-photo grid | 6–10 | ✅ (100k-photo grid scale test pending) |
+| M2 | Pipeline v1 (quality) | WB temp/tint, profiles, local tone mapping (highlights/shadows), curves, HSL, point colour, colour grading, texture/clarity/dehaze, vignette, grain, B&W, auto tone/WB, histogram, before/after | 10–15 | ✅ (look tuning vs our references ongoing) |
 | M3 | RAW I | TIFF/DNG (LJ92, deflate, tiles, opcodes), demosaic (AHD/PPG/bilinear), highlight recovery, DNG colour model, CR2, NEF, ARW, embedded previews | 10–15 | 🚧 (DNG, CR2, ARW, NEF uncompressed, embedded previews ✅; NEF Huffman ⬜) |
-| M4 | Crop, geometry, optics | crop tool + overlays, straighten, Upright (auto/level/vertical/full/guided), manual transforms, CA, defringe, manual lens corrections | 6–10 | ⬜ |
-| M5 | Performance | source pyramids, wgpu compute pipeline (CPU oracle), draft/full renders, prefetch, budgets (16 ms slider updates on 24 MP) | 10–15 | ⬜ |
-| M6 | Masking | brush, linear/radial gradients, colour/luminance/depth range, add/subtract/intersect/invert, all local adjustments, masks panel | 8–12 | ⬜ |
-| M7 | Detail | sharpening + masking preview, luminance/colour NR, Denoise, Raw Details, Super Resolution | 6–10 | ⬜ |
-| M8 | Heal / Remove | content-aware remove (PatchMatch), heal, clone, brush spots, visualize spots, red/pet eye | 6–10 | ⬜ |
-| M9 | Presets, profiles, versions, sync | preset browser + amount, create/import presets, profile browser, versions, history, copy/paste/sync settings | 5–8 | ⬜ |
-| M10 | Export & share | export dialog (JPEG/PNG/TIFF/DNG/AVIF/JXL/original), sizing, sharpening, metadata, watermark, naming, batch jobs, XMP sidecars, HDR export | 6–10 | ⬜ |
-| M11 | RAW II | CR3, RAF (X-Trans), ORF, RW2, PEF, SRW, 3FR, IIQ + long tail; camera calibration DB; HEIC/AVIF/JXL import | 20–35 | 🚧 (RAF uncompressed, RW2 packed, PEF, ORF uncompressed ✅) |
+| M4 | Crop, geometry, optics | crop tool + overlays, straighten, Upright (auto/level/vertical/full/guided), manual transforms, CA, defringe, manual lens corrections | 6–10 | ✅ |
+| M5 | Performance | source pyramids, wgpu compute pipeline (CPU oracle), draft/full renders, prefetch, budgets (16 ms slider updates on 24 MP) | 10–15 | 🚧 (stage cache, source pyramid, wgpu pipeline, prefetch, memory budget ✅; colour NR at half resolution, GPU histogram ⬜) |
+| M6 | Masking | brush, linear/radial gradients, colour/luminance/depth range, add/subtract/intersect/invert, all local adjustments, masks panel | 8–12 | 🚧 (brush/linear/radial/colour/luminance range, add/subtract/intersect, masks panel ✅; depth range, AI masks ⬜) |
+| M7 | Detail | sharpening + masking preview, luminance/colour NR, Denoise, Raw Details, Super Resolution | 6–10 | 🚧 (sharpening, luminance/colour NR ✅; AI Denoise, Raw Details, Super Resolution ⬜) |
+| M8 | Heal / Remove | content-aware remove (PatchMatch), heal, clone, brush spots, visualize spots, red/pet eye | 6–10 | 🚧 (heal, clone, auto source, visualize spots, red/pet eye ✅; PatchMatch remove ⬜) |
+| M9 | Presets, profiles, versions, sync | preset browser + amount, create/import presets, profile browser, versions, history, copy/paste/sync settings | 5–8 | ✅ |
+| M10 | Export & share | export dialog (JPEG/PNG/TIFF/DNG/AVIF/JXL/original), sizing, sharpening, metadata, watermark, naming, batch jobs, XMP sidecars, HDR export | 6–10 | 🚧 (all formats incl. DNG/original, sizing, presets, background jobs ✅; JXL encode, HDR export ⬜) |
+| M11 | RAW II | CR3, RAF (X-Trans), ORF, RW2, PEF, SRW, 3FR, IIQ + long tail; camera calibration DB; HEIC/AVIF/JXL import | 20–35 | 🚧 (RAF uncompressed, RW2 packed, PEF, ORF uncompressed ✅; CR3, compressed NEF/ORF/RAF ⬜) |
 | M12 | AI & smart features | subject/sky/background/people/object masks, semantic search, faces/People (permissively licensed models, pure-Rust inference) | 20–40 | ⬜ |
-| M13 | Merge | HDR merge (deghost), panorama (projections, boundary warp, fill edges), HDR panorama | 10–15 | ⬜ |
+| M13 | Merge | HDR merge (deghost), panorama (projections, boundary warp, fill edges), HDR panorama | 10–15 | ✅ |
 | M14 | Video | import/playback/trim via FilmCraft crates, global edits + presets on video, video export | 6–10 | ⬜ |
-| M15 | Classic modules | Map, Book, Slideshow, Print, Web; smart collections, stacks, virtual copies, publish services, tethering | 25–40 | ⬜ |
-| M16 | 1.0 polish | preferences, shortcut editor, accessibility, localization, packaging (dmg/msi/AppImage/web), hardening | 10–20 | ⬜ |
+| M15 | Classic modules | Map, Book, Slideshow, Print, Web; smart collections, stacks, virtual copies, publish services, tethering | 25–40 | 🚧 (smart albums, stacks, virtual copies, compare/survey ✅; Map/Book/Slideshow/Print/Web ⬜) |
+| M16 | 1.0 polish | preferences, shortcut editor, accessibility, localization, packaging (dmg/msi/AppImage/web), hardening | 10–20 | 🚧 (settings, keyboard shortcuts sheet, packaging basics ✅; accessibility, localisation ⬜) |
+
+## Parity estimate (2026-10-02)
+
+**By feature count** — from `docs/parity.md` (one row per Lightroom feature, menu item and shortcut; `cargo xtask
+parity` prints this line on every run, so it stays current):
+
+| Scope | Weighted completion | Rows |
+|---|---:|---:|
+| P0 (core) | **98.5%** | 198 |
+| P1 (important parity) | **79.9%** | 144 |
+| P2 (later / AI / niche, incl. Classic modules) | **11.7%** | 158 |
+| **All in-scope rows** | **65.7%** | 500 |
+
+✅ counts 1, 🟡 ½, ⬜ 0; out-of-scope rows (cloud sharing, Adobe accounts…) are left out.
+
+**By remaining effort** — rows are not equal: a shortcut and the whole Book module are one row each, and what is
+left is the heavy part (AI, video, Classic output modules, undocumented raw codecs). Remaining work in **Opus agent-hours**
+(one agent working continuously; calibrated on this project — a single lead agent closed ≈ 45 tracker rows of
+UI/feature work in ≈ 5 h on 2026-10-01, and four to six parallel agents built M0–M13 in ≈ 25 active hours):
+
+| Work package | Tracker rows | Agent-hours | Risk |
+|---|---|---:|---|
+| Remaining P0/P1 UI and library features (version hover previews, filter presets, quick develop, missing-file relink, metadata presets, keyword sets…) | ≈ 30 | 20–35 | low |
+| Raw codecs: CR3 (CRX), compressed NEF / ORF / RAF, RW2 v4, HEIC/AVIF decode | LR-IMP-FORMATS | 40–80 | **high** — clean-room black-box analysis, no permissive specs |
+| Lens-profile database of our own (calibration targets, fitting, data) | LR-EDIT-OPTICS-PROFILE | 15–30 | data collection |
+| Video: playback, trim, edits, export (pure-Rust decode, ideally shared with FilmCraft) | R. Video | 20–40 | medium |
+| AI: subject / sky / background / people / object masks, object-aware remove, AI denoise, super resolution, lens blur, people & faces, natural-language search, culling | ≈ 30 | 80–150 | **high** — permissively licensed weights, pure-Rust inference, maybe training |
+| HDR editing, display, visualisation and export | Q. HDR, LR-EXP-HDR | 15–25 | medium |
+| Classic modules: Map, Book, Slideshow, Print, publish services, tethering, soft proofing | ≈ 50 | 60–100 | medium (large, well-understood) |
+| Smaller P2 items: watched folders, Enhance dialog, external-editor round trip, export to Photos, help / what's new, accessibility, localisation | ≈ 25 | 20–35 | low |
+| Look tuning, performance budgets (colour NR at half resolution on CPU + GPU, 100k-photo library), packaging, hardening | — | 25–45 | medium |
+| **Total remaining** | | **≈ 295–540** | |
+
+Spent so far ≈ 90–130 agent-hours, so **by effort the project is ≈ 20–30% of the way to complete Lightroom + Classic
+parity**, and ≈ 40–55% of the way for cloud-Lightroom parity without AI and the Classic modules (remaining ≈ 135–235 h).
+
+**Wall clock:** ≈ 300–540 h for one agent working alone; with 4–6 parallel agents (≈ 70% parallel efficiency, merges and
+CI under load cost the rest) **≈ 75–130 h of continuous work**. The AI package and the raw codecs carry most of the
+uncertainty: they can finish faster if suitable permissive models / documentation turn up, or stall on licensing.
 
 ## Totals
 
-| Target | Milestones | Wall-clock estimate |
-|---|---|---|
-| Cloud-Lightroom feature complete | M0–M11, M13–M14 | **≈ 130–180 h** (6–8 days, 24/7) |
-| Full parity incl. Classic modules and AI | M0–M16 | **≈ 200–300 h** (9–13 days, 24/7) |
+Remaining from 2026-10-02 (see *Parity estimate* above for the breakdown):
+
+| Target | Remaining agent-hours | Wall clock, 4–6 parallel agents |
+|---|---:|---:|
+| Cloud-Lightroom parity without AI or Classic modules | ≈ 135–235 h | ≈ 35–60 h |
+| Full parity incl. AI, video and the Classic modules | ≈ 295–540 h | ≈ 75–130 h |
+
+The milestone estimates in the table above were made before work started and are kept for calibration (M0–M13 took
+≈ 25 active hours with parallel agents against an estimate of ≈ 110–170 h for those milestones).
 
 ## Risks that coding hours alone don't retire
 
@@ -70,4 +114,5 @@ own chart-based calibration (M11.4). Adobe matrices are never used.
 ## Log
 - 2026-09-30: roadmap created; M0 in progress; research docs (Lightroom reference, Rust imaging ecosystem) complete.
 - 2026-09-30 (later): app running with the full Lightroom-style UI; pipeline v0; DNG/CR2/ARW; README showcase. ≈ 8 h elapsed.
+- 2026-10-02: parity estimate added (xtask parity prints weighted completion); milestone statuses refreshed.
 - 2026-10-01: RAW II formats: RAF (uncompressed Bayer + X-Trans), RW2 (packed), PEF (incl. Huffman), ORF (uncompressed); embedded previews for every container incl. CR3; raw corpus test with 37 CC0 samples.
diff --git a/docs/parity.md b/docs/parity.md
index 8e0c2bfb2..a2ec77b0c 100644
--- a/docs/parity.md
+++ b/docs/parity.md
@@ -49,6 +49,8 @@ and prints the summary; `cargo xtask parity --write` refreshes the summary table
 | Z. Keyboard shortcuts (desktop) | 61 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 49/52 (94%) | 12/23 (52%) |
 | Lightroom Classic extras | 7 | 19 | 53 | 9 | — | 6/21 (29%) |
 | **Total** | 297 | 63 | 140 | 37 | 192/198 (97%) | 95/144 (66%) |
+
+Weighted completion (✅ = 1, 🟡 = ½, 🚫 left out): **65.7%** of 500 in-scope rows — P0 98.5% of 198 · P1 79.9% of 144 · P2 11.7% of 158.
 <!-- /parity:summary -->
 
 ## Top gaps
diff --git a/xtask/src/parity.rs b/xtask/src/parity.rs
index 651f3372e..caa3932a9 100644
--- a/xtask/src/parity.rs
+++ b/xtask/src/parity.rs
@@ -227,9 +227,35 @@ pub fn summary_table(doc: &Doc) -> String {
         s += &row(name, c);
     }
     s += &row("**Total**", &total);
+    s += &format!("\n{}\n", weighted_line(doc));
     s
 }
 
+/// Weighted completion of the in-scope rows (✅ = 1, 🟡 = ½, ⬜ = 0; 🚫 left out) for `tier`
+/// (`None` = all): (percent, rows).
+pub fn weighted(doc: &Doc, tier: Option<&str>) -> (f64, usize) {
+    let rows: Vec<&Row> = doc.rows.iter().filter(|r| r.status != Status::OutOfScope && tier.is_none_or(|t| r.tier == t)).collect();
+    let score: f64 = rows
+        .iter()
+        .map(|r| match r.status {
+            Status::Done => 1.0,
+            Status::Partial => 0.5,
+            _ => 0.0,
+        })
+        .sum();
+    (if rows.is_empty() { 0.0 } else { score * 100.0 / rows.len() as f64 }, rows.len())
+}
+
+/// "Weighted completion: 65.7% of 500 rows (P0 …, P1 …, P2 …)".
+pub fn weighted_line(doc: &Doc) -> String {
+    let (all, n) = weighted(doc, None);
+    let tiers: Vec<String> = ["P0", "P1", "P2"]
+        .iter()
+        .filter_map(|t| Some(weighted(doc, Some(t))).filter(|w| w.1 > 0).map(|(p, n)| format!("{t} {p:.1}% of {n}")))
+        .collect();
+    format!("Weighted completion (✅ = 1, 🟡 = ½, 🚫 left out): **{all:.1}%** of {n} in-scope rows — {}.", tiers.join(" · "))
+}
+
 /// Replace the summary between the markers.
 pub fn with_summary(md: &str, table: &str) -> Option<String> {
     let b = md.find(BEGIN)? + BEGIN.len();
@@ -397,6 +423,10 @@ old
         let table = summary_table(&d);
         assert!(table.contains("| A. Import (IMP) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1/1 (100%) | 0/1 (0%) |"), "{table}");
         assert!(table.contains("| **Total** | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 (50%) | 0/1 (0%) |"), "{table}");
+        // three in-scope rows: 1 + ½ + 0
+        assert_eq!(weighted(&d, None), (50.0, 3));
+        assert_eq!(weighted(&d, Some("P0")), (50.0, 2));
+        assert!(table.contains("**50.0%** of 3 in-scope rows — P0 50.0% of 2 · P1 50.0% of 1."), "{table}");
         let new = with_summary(SAMPLE, &table).unwrap();
         assert!(!new.contains("\nold\n"));
         assert!(new.contains(&format!("{BEGIN}\n{table}{END}")));